G Nakamura ; B Grammaticos ; M Badoual - Vaccination strategies for a seasonal epidemic: a simple SIR model

ocnmp:7463 - Open Communications in Nonlinear Mathematical Physics, June 9, 2021, Volume 1 - https://doi.org/10.46298/ocnmp.7463
Vaccination strategies for a seasonal epidemic: a simple SIR model

Authors: G Nakamura ; B Grammaticos ; M Badoual

We model the effect of vaccination on an epidemic which, like the current one, exhibits a climate-induced seasonality. Our study is carried out using a simple SIR model. One important feature of our approach is that of recruitment: by gradually introducing susceptible individuals we mimic the spatial evolution of the epidemic, which is absent in the classic SIR. We focus on the effect of vaccination on the number of hospital admissions. We show that any delay in the vaccination campaign results in an increase of hospitalisations, and if one tries to palliate for the delay by increasing the vaccination rate, this results in an inflation of the number of necessary doses. Considering a multi-agegroup population we show that it is advantageous to prioritise the vaccination of the older groups (upholding thus the current practice). Finally, we investigate whether a vaccination of the younger population based on awareness can be an optimal strategy, concluding by a negative.


Volume: Volume 1
Published on: June 9, 2021
Accepted on: May 29, 2021
Submitted on: May 6, 2021
Keywords: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-BIO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Biological Physics [physics.bio-ph]


Share

Consultation statistics

This page has been seen 67 times.
This article's PDF has been downloaded 48 times.